Sharon dying

It's obvious that Ariel Sharon is not going to live past the weekend.

What does this mean for the future of Middle East politics? Two pieces which together serve as an excellent primer can be found here and here.

Although I'm far from a scholar on the Middle East, my own view is that what happens in the next two-and-a-half months is going to depend primarily on militant Palestinian group like Hamas. If there is a wave of suicide bombings or terror attacks, particularly if they eminate from Gaza, the likelihood that Likud's hawkish Benjamin Netanyahu will win the Israel election at the end of March increases, as does the likelihood that any forward movement in the peace process will stop. However, if terror groups can be controlled, Sharon's new Kadima party stands a decent chance of winning, especially if former Labour Prime Minister Shimon Peres acedes to the leadership of the new party. (Sharon's deputy, Ehud Olmert, is not really considered to be prime ministerial material, but is rather seen as a loyal lieutenant to Sharon.)

As for Labour, I really don't see them being a factor as they've been in decline for the past four years ever since Ehud Barak stepped down from the leadership.

Krauthammer and Pipes are both pessimistic while Michael Oren is hopeful. The next 90 days will be critical for the security of both Israel and the West.