Ipsos numbers show that the Hill and Knowlton predictor is whacked

OK, I'm going to stop using the H and K predictor from here on in. These numbers from Ipsos show that it is inaccurate. Look for yourself.

Tories: 38% = 157 seats
Liberals: 26% = 43 seats (!)
NDP: 19% = 42 seats
Bloc: 12% = 65 seats
Greens: 5% = 1 seat

Now, here, Ipsos themselves project seat totals as follows:

Ipsos' seat projection model shows that if a vote were held tomorrow, the Tories would have a potential of securing 149-153 seats; the Liberals with 64-68; the NDP with 29-33; and the Bloc with 57-61.

Based on a sample size of over 8,000 people, this is the largest poll I've seen to date, and I would certainly take the Ipsos seat projections over the H and K one. There is no way the Liberals will be reduced to a lowly 43 seats.

Right now, we're looking at a near-Tory majority and I think that's about right.