Odds on the Liberal leadership
I'm going to look at each name that has been mentioned as a contender for the Liberal leadership and give them each two rankings out of ten. The first ranking is going to be how likely I think it is that they'll make a run for it, and the second ranking is how likely it is that they may actually win the thing. So here goes:
Frank McKenna: 9, 8
Michael Ignatieff: 10, 6
Martin Cauchon: 10, 7
Belinda Stronach: 10, 7
Brian Tobin: 5, 8
Maurizio Bevilacqua: 10, 3
Joe Volpe: 9, 0
Stephane Dion: 7, 6
Sheila Copps: 5, 3
Bob Rae: 5, 3
Jane Stewart: 6, 5
Anne McLellan: 4, 5
Hedy Fry: 8, 0
Scott Brison: 6, 6
Herb Dhaliwal: 3, 4
posted by Road Hammer @ 3:54 PM
10 comments
10 Comments:
i think mckenna has it in the bag. he has already raised a tonne of money and has no ties to the chretien regime and the culture of entitlement/sponsorship scandal. my dark horse is: kenny dryden.
You're probably right, Vincenzo. However, it would mean that the unwritten Liberal rule of alternating between an anglo/franco leader gets turfed ... however, given sponsorship, how could a Quebecer possibly be expected to return the party to power?
I also think the Liberals are going to wish that Belinda never crossed the floor after this race is finished.
Bang on about Belinda!
The whole switch between anglo/franco was an unwritten rule, and this is just my opinion, because they were always in power or on the cusp of power and their was a semi obvious choice. I don't know that the Liberal "brand" has ever been this damaged. I think they are best off going with the best candidate. I still say McKenna gets it though I don't see that a guy from the Maritimes will add many seats from his own geography.
If (when?) Ignatieff runs it will cancel out Dryden. They are too similar.
I think it interesting that Hedy Fry may run. This was just reported today apparently people have asked her to run....she is a great mp for vancouver center, but I am not sure how much support she would have for liberal leader but I think having someone in the race who is from BC and someone who is more socially minded will be postive.
At this point, I see McKenna, Cauchon, and Bevilacqua as the only serious candidates. They are experienced politicians who know exactly how to run and why they want to run.
To me the others are all vanity candidates. For Ignatieff, this is just the next step for colossal ego. Stronach and Brison are simply in love with themselves and cannot imagine a leadership race without them. Volpe is psychopathic. Note also, that none of these people have a lick of political sense between them. John Manley, who does have some, dropped out and I suspect that Tobin will do the same. Rae will not run against his college friend and fellow Marxist, Ignatieff. It would make the Babypoint cocktail parties awkward.
By the way, why didn't your list include Ruby Dhalla?
I'd sign up for that campaign.
She's too young. Kinsella wants her to go for it but I don't think she will. Also, the cattiness factor in the party will conspire to keep her down. More than a few Liberals sneer at "Dr." Ruby Dhalla.
Interesting list Hammer. Ira, great call on Volpe - that man is a lunatic who more belongs in an institution than Parliament.
Well she isn't a Doctor, she is a Chiro and what has she done to distinguish herself? Other than being an attractive woman from a powerful demographic?
"I love the women's movement. Especially when I'm walking behind it." - Rush H. Limbaugh.
...I'd walk in the good doctor's parade for just that reason. And then I'd vote for Frank McKenna.
Post a Comment
<< Home