State of the same-sex debate

Yesterday, our new PM said he wants to deal with a free vote on same-sex marriage sooner rather than later (see here). I think this is a colossal mistake. Consider the following: Of the two-thirds of Canadians who voted, two-thirds of them voted against a party that was clearly and explicitly anti-same sex marriage. This translates into approximately one in four adult Canadians endorsing the anti-same sex stance. Now, that's not to say that every non-Tory vote was an endorsement of gay marriage, but I think that it if was a make-or-break issue for someone, they would most likely cast their ballot for the Conservatives. Given that only 25% of Canadians expressed a willingness to re-open the debate, I consider it closed. I also think Harper knows it's over, but as I've said before, the party's base contains a significant number of activists for whom same-sex marriage is unthinkable. They're expecting Harper to deliver, and so he's snookered. I'm pretty sure he wants to move on ... perhaps not going this far (marching in a gay pride parade - there would be no quicker way to resurrect the old Reform party), but I'm sure his instincts would be to just leave it as is if he didn't have a backbench that wants to see a free vote.

I also think this will have implications for cabinet building. If I were Harper, the last thing I would do is put a grey, gruff, grumpy, older, rural Westerner like Vic Toews at Justice to steer this contentious issue through the House. A more measured and urbane Minister like Mackay would be much better for the Conservatives because he is less likely to reinforce the curmudgeonly image that the party has. Thing is, would the ambitious Mackay be willing to take a potential career-killing issue like this on? It would depend on whether he could get this over and done with and then move quickly on other issues so that he is not associated with trying to undo Charter rights as ruled by the Supreme Court. I suppose another option for Justice would be lawyer Jim Flaherty ... he's not a Westerner, he's good with the press and he comes from the Harris Cabinet, so he could balance off the Alliance and PC wings of the caucus, both of whom see this issue as potential dynamite. However, he's most likely to be tapped for Finance.

In the final analysis, this is going to be a real test for Harper.