Monday, February 27, 2006

The missing ingredient

Both the Wall Street Journal and Michael Barone have suggested that reports of the Bush Doctrine's death are greatly exaggerated.

My own view is that the key variable in whether or not the foreign policy of the Administration will succeed over the long term is whether or not a middle class develops in democratizing countries. Without it, nativist and simplistic solutions that are promoted by parties like Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood will flourish to the long-term detriment of the coalition project. Scapegoating Israel and promising grand socialistic plans provides a compelling narrative to those who are facing unemployment and other forms of economic despair. Democracy in the Middle East won't be healthy until people are able to provide for themselves. Sometimes I think that the theorists behind the Bush Doctrine don't realize this.

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