Snookered

If this poll is indicative of what we should expect on January 23, Stephen Harper and the Conservatives may lose half their seats in Ontario.

I think it's obvious to any impartial observer that Harper has been setting the tone in the campaign thus far. However, it seems as though there has been something that is just not resonating with Ontarians, and I would say it was probably his pronouncement on the first day of the campaign that he would allow a free vote on re-introducing legislation to preserve the definition of marriage for opposite-sex couples.

Now, whether or not you are pro- or anti-gay marriage is not relevant here. What is relevant is the fact that Harper really had no choice but to say what he did. It is impossible to understate the influence that evangelical Christians have on the party. The Tories have cast their lot in with that community, not only in terms of votes, but in terms of membership. This translates into both donors and activists during the campaign. For them, same-sex marriage is a top priority. If he were to say that he would leave the policy as the Liberals did, he would lose up to 3/4 of his campaign workers right there on the spot.

Now, Harper is no holy roller. However, by allowing the Conservative infrastucture to be so dominated by Bible-thumpers, he is beholden to them on issues like same-sex. He's snookered.

From where I stand, the Tory party has to expand their base. I think Harper realizes this. I once asked him back in 1999 when I interned at the Fraser Institute what he thinks the right needs to do to win. He said, "first of all, we have to stop telling people that in order to be conservative, they need to go to church." He also said that "secondly, we need to establish a built-in constituency." Unfortunately for Harper, it seems that the built-in constituency has become those who think that to be conservative, you have to be a church-goer.

I don't think the average Ontarian has a problem with people who go to church. A lot of Ontarians do, in fact. What the average Ontarian does have a problem with is the spiritual superiority that is claimed by evangelicals. The flip-side of the evangelical coin is a form of intolerance whereby "if you don't accept the Lord Jesus Christ as your personal saviour, you are a sinner in need of salvation". This is what gets the average Ontarian back on their heels. And really, I can't say that it doesn't get me back on my heels as well.

What the Tory party needs to do to increase their vote share in Ontario is to show people that despite the fact that there are evangelicals in the party, a Tory government would not try to bring some form of scripture-based public policy structure to Canada. (Not that this would really happen, but with their zeal and conviction, a lot of evangelicals give off the vibe that there would be nothing wrong with that.) The way to do this is to expand the membership. The party has to mature. It needs to become a party where people who are secular conservatives, who may not care about same-sex or may be supportive of it, are welcomed with open arms and are not considered suspicious figures or even worse, traitors. I have a feeling that the culture of that party is one which is not ready to accept dissent on issues that are integral to the evangelical Christian community.

It's too bad that the leader is ahead of that culture because he is the one who is having to suffer the consequences.